March 29, 2024

Shin OPEC Ta 'daidaita Tare Da Rasha' Bayan Rage Yawan Fitar Danyan Mai?

Matakin da kawancen OPEC+ na kasashe masu fitar da man fetur ya yanke na rage yawan man da ake hakowa tare da kara farashin danyen man fetur ya kawo cikas ga kasashen da ke cin abinci, lamarin da ya janyo zargin masu samar da man fetur a yankin tekun Fasha na marawa kasar Rasha baya da Amurka da kawayenta na yammacin Turai.


Kungiyar ta OPEC mai kasashe 13, da kawayenta 10 da Moscow ke jagoranta, sun amince a wani taro a Vienna kan rage yawan ganga miliyan biyu a kowace rana (bpd) daga watan Nuwamba, kungiyar ta sanar a cikin wata sanarwa a ranar Laraba.


Gwamnatin Biden, wacce ta kwashe tsawon watanni tana kokarin diflomasiyya don kawar da kawayenta na Gabas ta Tsakiya daga rage yawan man da ake hakowa, ta nuna takaicin yadda farashin farashin zai kara karuwa kafin babban zaben tsakiyar wa'adi.


Sakatariyar yada labaran fadar White House Karine Jean-Pierre ta fadawa manema labarai a ranar Laraba cewa shawarar OPEC + ta kasance "gajeren hangen nesa" yayin da tattalin arzikin duniya ke ci gaba da tabarbarewa daga "ci gaba da mummunan tasirin da shugaban Rasha Vladimir Putin ya yi wa Ukraine".


"A bayyane yake cewa OPEC + tana daidaitawa da Rasha tare da sanarwar yau," in ji Jean-Pierre.


Amma OPEC ta musanta wannan zargi. Sakatare-janar na kungiyar, Haitham al-Ghais, a ranar Juma'a ya ce, "Wannan ba hukunci ba ne daga wata kasa a kan wata."


"Ina so in bayyana karara game da wannan magana, kuma ba yanke shawara ce daga kasashe biyu ko uku a kan gungun wasu kasashe ba," in ji al-Ghais ga Al Arabiya TV.


Ita ma Saudiyya, daya daga cikin manyan kasashe a kungiyar OPEC, ta ce matakin ya zama wajibi domin mayar da martani ga hauhawar kudaden ruwa a kasashen yammacin duniya da kuma raunin tattalin arzikin duniya.


Ministan makamashi Yarima Abdulaziz bin Salman ya ce, "Ku nuna min inda ake yin fada," in ji ministan makamashi, ya kara da cewa kasuwanni na bukatar "shugaban da ba tare da zuba jari ba."


A caca a kan high farashin

Mukaddashin ministan mai na Kuwait, Mohammed al-Fares, ya fada a ranar Laraba cewa, yayin da kungiyar ta fahimci damuwar masu sayen kayayyaki game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, babban abin da ke damun su shi ne "kula da daidaito tsakanin wadata da bukata".


Carole Nakhle, shugaban kamfanin tuntuba Crystol Energy, yayi watsi da bayanin. "Kasuwa koyaushe tana daidaita kanta, wannan shine tushen hulɗar tsakanin buƙata da wadata," Nakhle ya fada wa Al Jazeera.


"Bambancin shine idan kun bar shi kasuwa, yana iya ba ku farashi wanda ya yi ƙasa da abin da OPEC ke son gani."


Manazarta na kallon matakin a matsayin kara hadarin durkushewar tattalin arzikin duniya, da kuma yanayin yanayin yanayin siyasa, a wani yunkuri na ganin farashin ya yi daidai da matakan da ake ciki yanzu.


"Wataƙila OPEC + tana jin tana da ɗan lokaci a gefenta don ganin ko tattalin arzikin duniya zai iya guje wa koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma ko za ta iya ɗaukar ɗanyen farashin abin da ƙungiyar za ta ɗauka a matsayin daidai daidai da dala 90 ganga," in ji Clyde Russell manazarcin makamashi. shafi na Reuters.


Yayin da raguwar samar da adadin miliyan biyu na bpd ba ya fassara zuwa raguwar adadin da ake samarwa a duniya, kamfanin bincike na Rystad Energy har yanzu ya sanya yuwuwar faduwa a kusan miliyan 1.2 bpd.


"Mun yi imanin cewa tasirin farashin matakan da aka sanar zai kasance mai mahimmanci," Mataimakin Shugaban kasa Jorge Leon ya fada wa Al Jazeera ta imel.


Hasashen da aka yi ya nuna cewa farashin mai zai fadi a karshen shekarar nan, amma bayan da kungiyar OPEC+ ta yanke shawarar, farashin man Brent zai iya kaiwa sama da dala 100 a cikin watan Disamba, sama da dalar Amurka 89 a baya.


Shin canjin siyasa zuwa Kremlin?

Washington ta fusata cewa Saudi Arabiya za ta goyi bayan matakin da, yayin da yake cin moriyar tattalin arzikinta na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ya yi hannun riga da manufofin tsaro na Riyadh na dogon lokaci da kuma raunana hangen nesa na Biden kafin zaben Nuwamba.


Bugu da kari, Rasha na cin gajiyar hauhawar farashin mai, wanda ya zuwa yanzu ya baiwa fadar Kremlin damar jure kaduwa na takunkumin da kasashen yamma suka kakaba mata.


Matakin na OPEC+ ya zo ne kwana guda bayan da jakadun Tarayyar Turai suka amince da sanya wani sabon zagaye na matakan tattalin arziki a wani yunƙuri na raunana yaƙin da Rasha ke yi a Ukraine, ciki har da rage farashin sayar da mai na Rasha da kuma haramta shigo da mafi yawan ɗanyen mai da za a fara fitarwa a Rasha. watanni masu zuwa.


Yayin da za a iya fahimtar dangantakar kai tsaye tsakanin abubuwan biyun, "dole ne a sami wasu siyasa [a cikin shawarar OPEC +]," Ben McWilliams, mai ba da shawara kan makamashi a cibiyar tunani na Bruegel na Brussels, ya fada wa Al Jazeera.


Ta fuskar tattalin arziki, hujjar da kasashe masu arzikin man fetur suka gabatar na cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki a duniya na janyo raguwar farashin, da alama ya sabawa farashin danyen mai na yanzu sama da dalar Amurka 85 kan kowacce ganga – mai lafiya wanda a lokutan al’ada ba zai yi kira da a shiga tsakani ba.


"A bayyane yake cewa akwai wani nau'i na daidaitawa da Rasha," in ji McWilliams.


Amma ba kowa ya yarda ba.


Dina Esfandiary, babbar mai ba da shawara a kungiyar International Crisis Group na Gabas ta Tsakiya-Arewacin Afirka, ta yi watsi da sha'awar kasashen yankin Gulf - wadanda a watan Maris suka kada kuri'ar amincewa da wani kudurin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya wanda ya yi Allah wadai da mamayar da Moscow ta yi wa Ukraine, kuma tun daga lokacin ne suka nemi ci gaba da kasancewa a matsayin maras tushe. don daidaitawa da Rasha.


Esfandiary ya ce "Ba daidai ba ne a ce suna zawarci da Rasha - suna yi wa kansu baya."


Duk da haka, matakin na iya zama "zama" ga gwamnatin Biden, wanda yunƙurin diflomasiyyar da bai yi nasara ba na dakatar da haƙon mai alama ce ta tasirin yaye kan ƙawayen Gulf.


Yaƙin neman zaɓe na tsawon watanni ya ƙare a hannun Biden da yarima mai jiran gado na Saudi Arabiya Mohammed bin Salman a watan Yuli, alama ce ta aniyar gwamnatin ta ci gaba daga manufar da ta bayyana na ɗaukar shugaban na Saudiyya alhakin kisan dan jarida Jamal Khashoggi.


"Daga karshe, ina tsammanin muna cikin wannan sabon zamanin da Larabawan Gulf ke yanke shawara da kansu," in ji manazarcin ICG. "Duk da yake Amurka muhimmiyar mai bada garantin tsaro ce, ba sa sauraron duk abin da Amurka ta umarce su da su yi."

Mky Kano

mky@sharhi.net

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